Price Formation,
Information
and Equilibrium.

Research
Portrait of Aryan Ayyar
Finance.
Information.
Markets.

I am Aryan Ayyar, Fellow-in-Residence at Manipal Academy of Higher Education. My work combines rational-expectations and general-equilibrium theory, asset pricing, market microstructure, and high-frequency empirical finance.

01 / ResearchAnveṣaṇaअन्वेषण

Working papers

All research

Public Inference and Funding Fragility

2026

Public order flow does not just move price; it resets continuation margin. Links adverse signed flow, price discovery, depth withdrawal, and forced deleveraging.

Where Manipulation Hides

2026

Distinguishes rational cancellation from deceptive intent and derives the benefits—and limits—of using profit-source evidence in enforcement.

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Queue Priority as Adverse-Selection Exposure

2026

Reframes FIFO priority as state-contingent adverse-selection exposure, linking fill toxicity, cancellation, hidden effective rank, and Kyle / Back information states.

Prices at Three Speeds

2026

Shows how information, liquidity, and trend-following pressure shape return predictability across horizons, with evidence from the same firms trading on the NSE and BSE.

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The Exact Obstruction to Jamshidian's Decomposition in Multifactor Affine Models

2026

Characterizes exactly when Jamshidian's decomposition survives in multifactor exponential-affine models: bond loadings must lie on a common positive ray. Near that boundary, projected one-factor strikes yield an upper bound with explicit error control.

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Investor Preferences Under Uncertainty and the Cross-Country Green Bond Premium

2026

Submitted to Finance Research Letters. Uses 417 matched green bonds across 30 countries to study how long-term orientation and uncertainty avoidance shape greenium heterogeneity.

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02 / LabPrayogaप्रयोग

Market Microstructure Lab

A public dashboard built from raw Nasdaq TotalView-ITCH order-level data: visible depth, top-of-book motion, execution bursts, cancel waves, and liquidity droughts.

Explore the lab
03 / WritingMananaमनन

Writing

Short fiction and essays: tenderness, restraint, and the rituals that carry histories.

Read the collection

यस्यामतं तस्य मतं मतं यस्य न वेद सः।

Yasyāmataṃ tasya mataṃ mataṃ yasya na veda saḥ.

He by whom Brahman is not known, knows It;
he by whom It is known, knows It not.

Kena Upaniṣad · 2.3 · opening half ↗
04 / AboutParicayaपरिचय

Education

MS Finance The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
BTech Mechatronics Engineering Manipal Institute of Technology

Let's talk research.

Open to PhD discussions on market microstructure, asset pricing, liquidity, and hidden-state identification in electronic markets.