Price Formation,
Information
and Equilibrium.
Research
Information.
Markets.
I am Aryan Ayyar, Fellow-in-Residence at Manipal Academy of Higher Education. My work combines rational-expectations and general-equilibrium theory, asset pricing, market microstructure, and high-frequency empirical finance.
Working papers
All research
Public Inference and Funding Fragility
2026
Public Inference and Funding Fragility
2026Public order flow does not just move price; it resets continuation margin. Links adverse signed flow, price discovery, depth withdrawal, and forced deleveraging.
Where Manipulation Hides
2026
Where Manipulation Hides
2026Distinguishes rational cancellation from deceptive intent and derives the benefits—and limits—of using profit-source evidence in enforcement.
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Queue Priority as Adverse-Selection Exposure
2026
Queue Priority as Adverse-Selection Exposure
2026Reframes FIFO priority as state-contingent adverse-selection exposure, linking fill toxicity, cancellation, hidden effective rank, and Kyle / Back information states.
Prices at Three Speeds
2026
Prices at Three Speeds
2026Shows how information, liquidity, and trend-following pressure shape return predictability across horizons, with evidence from the same firms trading on the NSE and BSE.
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The Exact Obstruction to Jamshidian's Decomposition in Multifactor Affine Models
2026
The Exact Obstruction to Jamshidian's Decomposition in Multifactor Affine Models
2026Characterizes exactly when Jamshidian's decomposition survives in multifactor exponential-affine models: bond loadings must lie on a common positive ray. Near that boundary, projected one-factor strikes yield an upper bound with explicit error control.
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Investor Preferences Under Uncertainty and the Cross-Country
Green Bond Premium
2026
Investor Preferences Under Uncertainty and the Cross-Country Green Bond Premium
2026Submitted to Finance Research Letters. Uses 417 matched green bonds across 30 countries to study how long-term orientation and uncertainty avoidance shape greenium heterogeneity.
Read paper ↗Market Microstructure Lab
A public dashboard built from raw Nasdaq TotalView-ITCH order-level data: visible depth, top-of-book motion, execution bursts, cancel waves, and liquidity droughts.
Explore the labWriting
Short fiction and essays: tenderness, restraint, and the rituals that carry histories.
Read the collectionयस्यामतं तस्य मतं मतं यस्य न वेद सः।
Yasyāmataṃ tasya mataṃ mataṃ yasya na veda saḥ.
He by whom Brahman is not known, knows It;
he by whom It is known, knows It not.
Education
Let's talk research.
Open to PhD discussions on market microstructure, asset pricing, liquidity, and hidden-state identification in electronic markets.