Price Formation,
Information
and Equilibrium.

Research
Illustrated portrait of Aryan Ayyar, wearing glasses and a patterned kurta, seated in an armchair.
Finance.
Information.
Markets.

I am Aryan Ayyar, Fellow-in-Residence at Manipal Academy of Higher Education. My work combines rational-expectations and general-equilibrium theory, asset pricing, market microstructure, and high-frequency empirical finance.

01 / ResearchAnveṣaṇaअन्वेषण

Working papers

All research

Order Flow, Liquidation Risk, and Margin

2026

A price can reveal value without revealing the cost of unwinding a position. In a Kyle-style model with staggered execution, a prime broker uses order flow and its client’s order to forecast remaining informed trading. Markets with the same price-update variance can have different margin sensitivity to signed order-flow surprises; binding requirements induce forced position reductions. The model focuses on the liquidity and closeout-execution component of margin.

Queue Priority as Adverse-Selection Exposure

2026

Reframes FIFO priority as state-contingent adverse-selection exposure, linking fill toxicity, cancellation, hidden effective rank, and Kyle / Back information states.

Prices at Three Speeds

2026

Studies how information, liquidity pressure, and trend feedback shape return covariance across horizons. Within the model, two adjustment rates permit at most one sign change; Indian-equity patterns provide descriptive evidence. Revised 24 September 2026.

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The Exact Obstruction to Jamshidian's Decomposition in Multifactor Affine Models

2026

Characterizes exactly when Jamshidian's decomposition survives in multifactor exponential-affine models: bond loadings must lie on a common positive ray. Near that boundary, projected one-factor strikes yield an upper bound with explicit error control.

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Investor Preferences Under Uncertainty and the Cross-Country Green Bond Premium

2026

Submitted to Finance Research Letters. Uses 417 matched green bonds across 30 countries to study how long-term orientation and uncertainty avoidance shape greenium heterogeneity.

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The Cost of Being First

2026

In a price-time-priority market, an order ahead in the queue executes more often but can earn less. In a limit order book where dealers cancel and resubmit at random times, we construct an equilibrium in which an order fills more often than the one behind it yet earns less, while every dealer profits from supplying liquidity. Dealers also pay to surrender a valuable place in the queue to avoid being moved up into a worse position. A two-round extension adds learning, repricing and repeated informed trading. Version 2, October 2026.

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02 / LabPrayogaप्रयोग

Market Microstructure Lab

A public dashboard built from raw Nasdaq TotalView-ITCH order-level data: visible depth, top-of-book motion, execution bursts, cancel waves, and liquidity droughts.

Explore the lab
03 / Personal projects

Kai Tak: Checkers with Runway 13

A personal study of Hong Kong’s former airport, bringing together historical maps, aerial photographs and flight dynamics to explore how a turn, descent, touchdown and full stop fit into one constrained trajectory.

Historical source-map mosaic of Kai Tak, Kowloon and Kowloon Bay, with Runway 13/31 labelled and a visible source-tile gap.

Kai Tak and Kowloon, assembled from survey-map editions dated 1986–1993. Missing source coverage remains visible.

Map sources and credit

Source data: Lands Department, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; CSDI Portal and DATA.GOV.HK. Government and relevant organisations retain intellectual-property ownership. Reconstruction and rendering: Aryan Ayyar. Data and derivatives are supplied as-is; no Government endorsement.

The illustrated whitepaper follows the historical evidence and two synthetic landing constructions under explicit assumptions. This is ongoing research, not operational flight guidance or a claim of historical obstacle clearance or global optimality.

Whitepaper · V5 · · 38 pages

04 / WritingMananaमनन

Writing

Short fiction and essays: tenderness, restraint, and the rituals that carry histories.

Read the collection

यस्यामतं तस्य मतं मतं यस्य न वेद सः।

Yasyāmataṃ tasya mataṃ mataṃ yasya na veda saḥ.

He by whom Brahman is not known, knows It;
he by whom It is known, knows It not.

Kena Upaniṣad · 2.3 · opening half ↗
05 / AboutParicayaपरिचय

Education

MS Finance The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
BTech Mechatronics Engineering Manipal Institute of Technology

Let's talk research.

Open to PhD discussions on market microstructure, asset pricing, liquidity, and hidden-state identification in electronic markets.